Each year that conference play begins in NCAA basketball, the remnants of the previous season and preseason expectations tend to fade away. National pollsΒ andΒ data-backed metrics take care of themselves and, as conference play heats up in January,Β teams now settle it on the court and jockey for position in March Madness.Β Β
Despite roster turnover and the many factors affecting college basketball today, one thing that has stayed constant from last season is the excellent play of last season’s Final Four teams. Reigning champ Baylor is back atop the national rankings and Gonzaga, UCLA and Houston have all answered the bell this season after making it to the final weekend last year. Let’s take a look at last year’s Final Four teams now, and see what the numbers tell us as to how they’ve managed to stay on top. Β
Records and data accurate as of Jan. 5, 2022.Β Β
BaylorΒ (14-0, 34.6Β Net Rating,Β #1Β inΒ KenPom)
Last year’s champion lostΒ its three top scorers (including twoΒ playersΒ to the NBA)Β andΒ 64% of its scoring andΒ 47% of its rebounding.Β Yet, the Baylor Bears have reloadedΒ with talentΒ and played their way to the top of the polls and the metrics ratings.Β
Much like it did last year during its championship run,Β BaylorΒ is winning with a punishing defense.Β The Bears are currentlyΒ 7thΒ nationally inΒ Defensive Rating,Β whichΒ takesΒ intoΒ accountΒ points allowed perΒ 100Β possessions. Baylor takes the ball away as much as almost anyone, rankingΒ 8thΒ in turnover percentage andΒ 9thΒ in steals percentage. In short, if you’re onΒ offense against Baylor, you are more likely to have the ball stolen from you than you are to score points.Β Β
On offense,Β BUΒ is 13thΒ nationally inΒ Offensive RatingΒ (points per 100 possessions) and is among the nation’s best in effective field goal percentage andΒ offensive turnover percentage, meaningΒ the Bears take and make good shots and don’t turn the ball over. Baylor is also among the elite in offensive rebounding,Β rankingΒ 6thΒ in the nation byΒ grabbing 39.8% of its missedΒ shots.Β Even when they miss, the Bears still find a way to score.Β Β
GonzagaΒ (11-2, 32.5 Net Rating,Β #2Β inΒ KenPom)
Gonzaga won every game it played last season until falling to Baylor in the championship game. GU had to replaceΒ three NBA Draft picks this year and yet still entered this season as the overwhelming number one team.Β Gonzaga is again explosive offensively,Β ranking 6thΒ nationally by scoringΒ 85.6Β pointsΒ per game.Β The Zags are among the nation’s best inΒ Offensive RatingΒ (7thΒ nationally) and effective FG percentage (4th).Β
Led by All-American Drew TimmeΒ and 7-foot freshman phenom Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga is the nation’s best offensive team in the paint. Gonzaga leads the nationΒ in both point paints per game (43.7) and FG percentage in the paint (66%). The ZagsβΒ offense works inside-out through TimmeΒ and as a result they get better shots near the basket than almost any team in the nation.Β
UCLA (8-1,Β 22.4Β Net Rating, #10Β inΒ KenPom)
UCLA made a surprise run to the Final Four last season and returned much of its firepower this year, including stars JohnnyΒ JuzangΒ andΒ Jaime Jaquez.Β The postseason success and returning players led the Bruins to be pickedΒ second toΒ GonzagaΒ in the preseason polls and, despite some schedule interruptions, they’re still ranked in the top 5 in the human polls.Β Β
Like Baylor and Gonzaga, UCLA is one of the top offensive teams in the country, rankingΒ 21stΒ inΒ Offensive Rating.Β What drives UCLA is strong guard play, with veteran players taking care of the ball. UCLA is 8thΒ in the nation in Turnover PercentageΒ because it only gives the ball up 12% of the time.Β UCLA has committed 10 or fewerΒ turnoversΒ inΒ six of the team’s nineΒ games.Β
In addition to taking care of the ball, the Bruins are also excellent at grabbing the ball off the backboard. UCLA isΒ rankedΒ 6thΒ in the nation inΒ defensive rebound percentage, pulling in 79% of its opponentsβ missed shots. On offense, UCLA doesn’t give it away and on defense it doesn’t allow opponents any second shots.Β
Houston (12-2, 33.7Β Net Rating, #3Β inΒ KenPom)
Houston is 2ndΒ nationally behind only Baylor in Net RatingΒ and has two losses by a combine three points. The Cougars, who own a 96-18 record dating back to 2018,Β areΒ statistically favored in every game for the rest of the season.Β
Like UCLA, UH takes care of the ball at a high level. Houston ranksΒ 28thΒ nationally inΒ turnover percentage. Conversely, Houston uses full-court pressure defense to take the ball away from opponents almost as well as anyone. The Cougars rank 13thΒ nationally by forcing turnovers more than 22 percent of the time.Β They also do a great job of converting off those turnovers, scoring 23.2 points off turnovers per game, which places them in the top 5 in the country.Β
Other teams such asΒ Arizona (34.4 Net Rating),Β PurdueΒ (31.3), DukeΒ (29.7)Β and KansasΒ (26.0)Β are alsoΒ highly-rankedΒ andΒ are projected to beΒ highly-seededΒ during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship in March.Β The numbers give us an idea of who we’ll see in the bracket in March and why,Β but the fun part where everyone settlesΒ it on the court is now upon us.Β
Genius Sports, the official data partner of the NCAA, calculates next-gen statistics for sports all over the globe.Β NCAAΒ LiveStats, powered by Genius Sports, is the statistical platform for 98% of NCAA Division I schools and for March Madness.Β
