Training camps are underway, and the 2023 NFL season is right around the corner. To get you ready for the season, The Playbook is breaking down each division, identifying who to watch and what to look out for, position odds, and much more. We began with the reigning Super Bowl Champions. Here, we’re going to look a division with another top AFC contender – the AFC East.

The favorite: Buffalo Bills (+130) 

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills had a disappointing end to their season last year, but made the playoffs for the fourth straight year, fifth since 2017. They are favored to win the AFC East again this year and will depend heavily on star quarterback Josh Allen, who finished 3rd in MVP voting last year after throwing for 4,283 yards and 35 touchdowns. 

Allen was a one man show on offense and the Bills failed to make many splashy additions to assist, notably missing out on free agent WR DeAndre Hopkins. Allen still has WR Stefon Diggs on the outside who, despite some drama, remains solid with his quarterback. In 2022, Buffalo scored on 45% of its drives, good for second in the league.

If that production remains, and OLB Von Miller can return from injury to anchor a stout defense, Buffalo will continue to challenge Kansas City and Cincinnati for the top seed in the AFC. 

Ceiling: Josh Allen finally represents the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Floor: Another premature playoff exit, with Sean McDermott getting hot under the collar.

Are the Miami Dolphins the real deal? (+290) 

Miami made a great impression last year, reaching the playoffs with a 9-8 record under first year head coach Mike McDaniel.

McDaniel had an explosive offense when QB Tua Tagovailoa was healthy and getting the ball to speedster WR Tyreek Hill, who caught 119 passes for 1710 yards and 7 touchdowns. Hill and fellow WR Jalen Waddle form the fastest and most dynamic receiving duo in the league. If Tagovailoa can stay on the field, Miami’s offense has a chance to lead the league in all passing categories. 

Their defense is expected to be much improved, with the offseason addition of All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who injured his knee earlier in training camp. If he is able to come back mid-season and return to form, Miami can make a late run for another Wild Card spot or even challenge Buffalo and New York for the division.

The biggest question will remain the health of Miami’s stars, particularly Tua, and whether McDaniel can recreate some of his magic last season. 

Ceiling: You would rub your hands together at a Chiefs-Dolphins AFC Championship game, wouldn’t you?

Floor: If Tua’s injuries become overwhelming, there’s a chance Mike White or Skylar Thompson play most of this season. That’s not a playoff-threatening team.

What even are the New England Patriots (+750) 

As long as Bill Belichick is the head coach for the Patriots, they will always have a chance to make the playoffs.

They missed out last year due in part to a highly lackluster offense. While there haven’t been many playing additions, former head coach and Belichick disciple Bill O’Brien is back as offensive coordinator to turn things around.

New England was ranked in the bottom third in all major rushing categories last year, failing to help QB Mac Jones build off his successful rookie year. The Patriots were 7-0 when teams scored less than 20 points, but 1-9 otherwise. If O’Brien improves the running game and Mac Jones is able to develop there will always be a chance for the Patriots to sneak into the playoffs. 

Belichick’s background is defense and has always been his focus. Despite the team finishing in the top ten across most defensive categories, they spent their first-round pick on CB Christian Gonzalez to ensure they can slow down the dynamic offenses within their division and conference. 

Ceiling: I can’t see the Patriots challenging anyone if they make the playoffs. A miserable Wild Card exit.

Floor: Bottom of the AFC East. Bottom-10 offense. Nothing to look forward to. A bitter and dismal season.

Does Aaron Rodgers make the New York Jets a Super Bowl contender? (+250) 

The New York Jets were the talk of the entire offseason, and airing on HBO’s Hard Knocks hasn’t exactly quietened that down. The Jets got Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers and immediately fans began writing them into the Super Bowl. While they have the second highest odds to win the AFC East, their odds to win the Super Bowl moved from +2500 before signing Rodgers to +1400 (fourth best in NFL).

There is no shortage of hype, and early signs show Rodgers and star second year receiver Garrett Wilson have been connecting well in camp. If the Jets get MVP production from Rodgers, those odds could get a whole lot shorter.

Their defense of course will have to continue to dominate and build off of last year. Rookie CB Sauce Gardner turned in an impressive performance during the 2022 season, leading the league with 20 pass breakups and winning Defensive Rookie of the Year. Under Head Coach Robert Saleh’s guidance, the Jets defense has all the weapons to build defensively and make a run deep into the playoffs. 

Ceiling: I’ve bought in. The New York Jets can win the Super Bowl.

Floor: With Rodgers and this young receiving corps, the playoffs should be a minimum expectation. I think that’s reasonable.

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