New record-breaking deals for Lamar, Hurts, Herbert and Joe Burrow. High-profile moves for Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo. Three first-round rookies hoping to become the face of their franchise. The now-annual battle between Mahomes, Burrow and Allen. This year, as much as any before it, is all about the quarterback.
Our brand new Quarterback Power Rankings will track progress across the season, using the NFL’s official Next Gen Stats data, as well as metrics like expected points added (EPA), average air yards per attempt and success rate to categorically rank every starting QB. Scroll to the bottom to read about how our formula weights each of these statistics to give us the Playbook Power Rating.
Check back every Tuesday for an updated list.
1. TUA TAGOVAILOA
Playbook Power Rating: 382.6
Week four verdict:
Unpicked and bullied by the Bills this weekend, Tua might not hold this spot for much longer.
Next game: Giants
2. BROCK PURDY
Playbook Power Rating: 379.6
Week four verdict:
Kyle Shanahan’s living embodiment of a QB continues to excel for the 49ers.
Next game: Cowboys
3. JOSH ALLEN
Playbook Power Rating: 354.1
Week four verdict:
This is the Josh Allen we want to see every week. Fun, unpredictable, simply dominant. A convincing win over the Jags would cement the Bills’ position as the AFC frontrunners.
Next game: Jaguars
4. LAMAR JACKSON
Playbook Power Rating: 348.8
Week four verdict:
Getting our early bids in for Lamar’s second MVP award. The Todd Monken era is Lamar’s best friend.
Next game: @ Steelers
5. GENO SMITH
Playbook Power Rating: 326.7
Week four verdict:
The Seahawks continue to grow after a strange opening weekend. The NFC West is a tough division – who knew?
Next game: BYE
6. JIMMY GAROPPOLO
Playbook Power Rating: 343.2
Week four verdict:
Jimmy didn’t play, so this is a pinch-of-salt ranking.
Next game: Packers
7. JUSTIN HERBERT
Playbook Power Rating: 333.3
Week four verdict:
That rare thing happened for Brandon Staley’s Los Angeles Chargers this week: the Chargers bailed out Justin Herbert, rather than the other way around.
Next game: BYE
8. CJ STROUD
Playbook Power Rating: 318.7
Week four verdict:
Two more touchdowns, 300 more passing yards, STILL NO INTERCEPTIONS. I’m sure things are completely fine over in Carolina, by the way. Completely fine.
Next game: @ Falcons
9. JOSH DOBBS
Playbook Power Rating: 318.1
Week four verdict:
Do the Cardinals realize that playing well this season was not supposed to be part of the plan? Dobbs with another good account of himself against a tricky 49ers defense.
Next game: Bengals
10. JARED GOFF
Playbook Power Rating: 313.5
Week four verdict:
Is Jared Goff the most underrated QB in the NFL? The Lions move up to 3-1, with a firm grip on the NFC North.
Next game: Panthers
11. BAKER MAYFIELD
Playbook Power Rating: 306.6
Week four verdict:
Baker is out here slicing and dicing it up for Tampa Bay. Those risque Baker-type plays haven’t gone away, but he’s added some decent scrambling prowess to this Bucs offense. One to watch.
Next game: BYE
12. PATRICK MAHOMES
Playbook Power Rating: 305.0
Week four verdict:
We all know he’s No. 1, but it’s fun to pretend he isn’t for a little while, right? That slide at the end of the Jets game? You cruel, cruel man, Patrick.
Next game: @ Vikings
13. DAK PRESCOTT
Playbook Power Rating: 302.4
Week four verdict:
The Cowboys are going to win the Super Bowl.
The Cowboys wont even make the playoffs.
The Cowboys are going to win the Super Bowl. (repeat ad infinitum)
Next game: @ 49ers
14. TREVOR LAWRENCE
Playbook Power Rating: 299.5
Week four verdict:
A de facto home game for the Jaguars at Wembley in London unsurprisingly yielded a win. But it’s a different story next week when the Bills roll into town.
Next game: @ Bills
15. RUSSELL WILSON
Playbook Power Rating: 295.9
Week four verdict:
The Broncos won a game! Just about! Against The Bears! Russ did throw three TD passes in this one and completed 75% of his passes, so let’s be fair.
Next game: Jets
16. MATTHEW STAFFORD
Playbook Power Rating: 290.1
Week four verdict:
Is this the best Matthew Stafford we’ve ever seen? He and Puka Nacua seem to be telepathic, and he gets to choose between him and Cooper Kupp next week. I’m a little surprised he’s not ranked higher here.
Next game: Eagles
17. JALEN HURTS
Playbook Power Rating: 289.8
Week four verdict:
Have the Eagles even played well yet? They’re 4-0, so it doesn’t really matter. What does matter: Hurts rediscovered the deep ball in week four, and inevitably AJ Brown was on the end of it.
Next game: @ Rams
18. KIRK COUSINS
Playbook Power Rating: 280.7
Week four verdict:
The one week Kirk doesn’t throw for a million yards, the Vikings win.
Next game: Chiefs
19. JORDAN LOVE
Playbook Power Rating: 279.8
Week four verdict:
A tough night on Primetime for Jordan Love. It’ll happen – he’s young. His first bad game of the season.
Next game: @ Raiders
20. DESHAUN WATSON
Playbook Power Rating: 277.2
Week four verdict:
Didn’t play, luckily for him.
Next game: BYE
21. ANTHONY RICHARDSON
Playbook Power Rating: 275.5
Week four verdict:
This was such a fun game, wasn’t it? OK, his completion percentage didn’t move mountains (44%), but he still threw for two touchdowns and rushed for a third. Richardson is legit.
Next game: Titans
22. MAC JONES
Playbook Power Rating: 271.1
Week four verdict:
Is the Mac Jones experiment in New England over? He threw two nasty picks in a game where the New England offense looked rudderless.
Next game: Saints
23. JUSTIN FIELDS
Playbook Power Rating: 263.6
Week four verdict:
OK, so this was more like the Justin Fields we saw in glimpses last year. Well over 300 yards, four TD passes, and a completion rate of 80%.
Next game: @ Commanders
24. DEREK CARR
Playbook Power Rating: 256.2
Week four verdict:
Out with a shoulder injury, Jameis Winston stepped in to cover Carr.
Next game: @ Patriots
25. SAM HOWELL
Playbook Power Rating: 253.9
Week four verdict:
The early returns on Sam Howell stock was beginning to look pretty good. Taking the Eagles to overtime is some effort.
Next game: Bears
26. DESMOND RIDDER
Playbook Power Rating: 248.6
Week four verdict:
It’s hard to work out just exactly what works in this Falcons offense. There’s a bunch of talent and a young QB, but they already seem to be over reliant on Bijan Robinson.
Next game: Texans
27. DANIEL JONES
Playbook Power Rating: 245.1
Week four verdict:
Daniel Jones’ -0.38 EPA per dropback is the second-worst in the NFL. The Giants face two road games against the Dolphins and the Bills next. Gulp.
Next game: @ Dolphins
28. BRYCE YOUNG
Playbook Power Rating: 238.8
Week four verdict:
There must be a dartboard in the Panthers’ front office with the Texans management team on it.
Next game: @ Lions
29. JOE BURROW
Playbook Power Rating: 238.7
Week four verdict:
At what point are the Bengals being negligent by insisting that Joe Burrow continues to play? He’s clearly not right, and they’re not even scheming to accommodate for it. A weird situation in Cincy.
Next game: @ Cardinals
30. ZACH WILSON
Playbook Power Rating: 224.6
Week four verdict:
The game of Zach Wilson’s career? Probably. He put in a gritty performance (despite the game-losing fumble – this kid can’t catch a break) against the Chiefs, battling back from a 17-point deficit. A turning point? I wouldn’t go that far.
Next game: @ Broncos
31. RYAN TANNEHILL
Playbook Power Rating: 223.8
Week four verdict:
Vintage Ryan Tannehill here. But, perhaps more importantly, vintage Derek Henry.
Next game: Titans
32. KENNY PICKETT
Playbook Power Rating: 207.6
Week four verdict:
Can’t quite pick himself off the bottom of our rankings. His EPA per drop back remains the lowest in the NFL (-0.39) which says a lot. Unfortunately suffered what looks to be a nasty knee injury too.
Next game: Ravens
How do the Playbook Quarterback Power Rankings work?
Each of the 29 individual metrics we’ve included are combined in our formula – weighted in favor of key metrics – to give us a Playbook Power Rating for each QB. This number determines our weekly rankings.
When ranking quarterbacks, it is all about the value you bring to the team as a passer, the aggressiveness of your targets and your accuracy. EPA/DB and SR directly correlate to adding points to your team and therefore have the highest value in our formula. We also want to reward quarterbacks who are moving the ball downfield on their attempts (not just short passes that go for long runs). Finally, the quarterbacks that are accurate and placing the ball in better spots to give their receivers the best chance to make a play will rank higher.
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